HCASL Analysis 1 – Annual Trends And Patterns In Grants

Thesis

“Can time series analysis be used to identify patterns, dependencies and trends in court data, and how do these patterns relate to the outcomes of legal cases? A case study of court data from the Australian High Court using all HCATRANS transcripts between 2013-2022. This question seeks to explore the potential of time series analysis techniques to uncover insights and patterns in court data, and understand how these patterns might relate to case outcomes.

Hypothesis: That High Court Special Leave Outcomes are not determined independently.

The current prevailing opinion is that High Court Special Leave Applications are determined independently or on a case by case basis[1]. This contrasts certain heuristics – such as a managed court list size and a desire for the courts to hear a breadth of issues. This article is an exploratory first step into showing that the High Court follows predictable patterns that are theoretically exploitable.

This paper avoids the analysis of domain-specific reasons for any data behaviours. The analysis of any trends is a subject that also deserves analysis, however the existence of patterns has not yet been fully explored – and that is the focus of this research, rather than the reasons for them or drilling down into specifics.

Previous Work

Stewart and Stuhmke

Stuhmcke and Stewart are the leading contemporary sources on High Court Special Leave, applications, exploring cases between 2013-2015[2]. They explored both the spoken and written special leave applications – as contrasted to this paper which focuses solely on the cases the court heard. They examined a bespoke time period based on justice composition rather than calendar/financial years[3], and focused on the applicants, using the High Court Bulletin to guide their results. It would appear their stated time period is slightly off – They stated from March 1 2013 to February 3 2015 HCASL only.

There was a slight difference in the special leave counts between this research and their paper. If February 3-28 are added, the difference was reduced to a single case – which can be explained by a small variation in what is classified as special leave (if they counted the case removed to the higher court which this paper does not – the numbers are equal). It is also possible they used a different counting mechanism.

High Court Bulletin

The High court results are ‘mostly’ reported in the High Court Bulletin. It is presumed the missing cases in the bulletin are not publicly available as there are some slight discrepancies. The counting method used was when there are multiple applications on the same case – the results are counted for each application. An example is in [2017] HCATrans 069[4] where a matter decided in a single judgment is prima-facie counted as four applications (this is consistent with the published high court grants numbers). This contrasts the approach taken in this study – of 1 case – 1 grant. This is the predominant reason the figures in this research and Stumke’s are inconsistent with the HCA Annual Reports. When this it accounted for – the measurements appear to be somewhat accurate.

Selection of Data

Data Used

The data exclusively consists of all HCATRANS matters published on Austlii between January 1 2013 and December 31 2022 [gross total 2767, 1125/2767 were special leave applications]. Austlii classifies written only judgements as HCASL cases.

Data Excluded

Between 2013-2022 there are an estimated 2946 HCASL results. There were exactly 2 grants of leave. This data was collected electronically. As the grants consisted of 0.0678% of this subset – that data was excluded from this analysis as statistically insignificant and belonging to a separate distribution. Although it is apparent there is some variance in the frequency of rejections, the focus of this study is the grants.

Non-Austlii Cases were excluded. This is a relatively small subset – containing 6 grants, 10 refusals, and 3 redacted cases. There were 3 excluded cases with redacted outcomes. They were excluded as any further analysis or textual analysis of these would be hindered by the different stylistic approach of the provider (ordinarily JadeBarnet). This could result in semantic differences that affect any automated measurement (particularly down the track when text analysis techniques are used) – they would need to be inputted manually and given they are stored separately – it was decided they were to be removed from the sample.

Ultimately it was decided to focus on Grants not refusals. Between the change in refusal process in 2007, the decisions whether to count HCASL, and the initial apparent distributions of the data (seen below), given the refusals split into two clear sub/distributions (one trending down, one up), it would be preferable to initially only focus on the grants of leave.

Data Grouping

The HCA Bulletin was used to categorize cases. There were 79 default categorizations as below

{‘tortsnegligence’, ‘contract’, ‘procedure’, ‘estoppel’, ‘contract lawestoppel’, ‘taxes and duties’, “workers compensationworkers’ compensation”, ‘contract law’, ‘damagescosts’, ‘property law’, ‘competition’, ‘workers compenstationworkers compensation’, ‘immigration law’, ‘tort’, ‘costs’, ‘workers compensation’, ‘taxation’, ‘tort law’, ‘corporations’, ‘negligence’, ‘defamation’, ‘damages’, ‘equity’, ‘stamp duty’, ‘proceeds of crime’, ‘civil procedure’, ‘evidence’, ’employment law’, “workers’ compensationworkers compensation”, ‘contract lawcontracts’, ‘contract lawintellectual property’, ‘patentsintellectual property’, ‘corporations law’, ‘statutory constructionmining’, ‘criminal law’, ‘patents’, ‘interpretation’, ‘migration law’, ‘consumer protection’, ‘insurance law’, ‘consumer protectiontrade practices’, ‘superannuation’, ‘jury’, ‘bankruptcy’, ‘trusts’, ‘leases and tenancies’, ‘taxationsuperannuation’, ‘tortsdefamation’, ‘immigration’, ‘consumer law’, ‘income tax’, ‘professions and trades’, ‘damagescompensation’, ‘intellectual property’, ‘land’, ‘practice and procedure’, ‘compensation’, ‘statutesstatutory interpretation’, ‘statutes’, ‘copyright’, ‘corporationscorporations law’, ‘familyfamily law’, ‘insurance’, ‘family’, ‘statutory interpretation’, ‘real property’, ‘competition law’, ‘tortstort law’, ‘contract lawequity’, ‘immigrationmigration law’, ‘criminal practice’, ‘family law’, ‘torts’, ‘other’, ‘migration’, ‘trade practices’, ‘contracts’, ‘statutesinterpretation’, ‘trade marks’}

These were grouped into like matters, and the author manually created the broader categories. Each list in the below table was combined into a single matter type.

[[’employment law’, ‘professions and trades’, ‘workers compensation’, “workers’ compensationworkers compensation”, ‘workers compenstationworkers compensation’, “workers compensationworkers’ compensation”, “employment lawworkers’ compensation”, ’employment lawprofessions and trades’], [‘competition law’, ‘competition’, ‘consumer protection’, ‘consumer law’, ‘trade practices’, ‘consumer protectiontrade practices’, ‘competition lawtrade practices’], [‘corporations law’, ‘corporations’, ‘corporationscorporations law’], [‘immigration law’, ‘immigration’, ‘migration law’, ‘migration’, ‘immigrationmigration law’], [‘taxation’, ‘taxes and duties’, ‘stamp duty’, ‘bankruptcy’, ‘superannuation’, ‘income tax’, ‘taxationsuperannuation’], [‘family’, ‘family law’, ‘familyfamily law’], [‘patents’, ‘trade marks’, ‘intellectual property’, ‘copyright’, ‘patentsintellectual property’, ‘patentsintellectual property’, ‘contract lawintellectual property’], [‘criminal law’, ‘criminal practice’, ‘proceeds of crime’, ‘jury’, ‘evidence’, ‘criminal lawevidence’], [‘torts’, ‘tort law’, ‘tort’, ‘negligence’, ‘defamation’, ‘tortsdefamation’, ‘tortsnegligence’, ‘tortstort law’], [‘real property’, ‘property law’, ‘leases and tenancies’, ‘land’], [‘statutes’, ‘statutory interpretation’, ‘interpretation’, ‘statutesstatutory interpretation’, ‘interpretation’, ‘statutory constructionmining’, ‘statutesinterpretation’], [‘contract law’, ‘contracts’, ‘equity’, ‘estoppel’, ‘contract’, ‘contract lawcontracts’, ‘contract lawequity’, ‘contract lawestoppel’, ‘patents’, ‘trusts’], [‘civil procedure’, ‘procedure’, ‘practice and procedure’, ‘practice and procedure’, ‘practice and procedure’], [‘damages’, ‘compensation’, ‘costs’, ‘damagescompensation’, ‘damagescosts’], [‘insurance law’, ‘insurance’], [‘other’]]

The remaining results for grants were calculated as

[(‘criminal law’, 126), (‘immigration law’, 33), (‘contract law’, 35), (‘torts’, 30), (‘civil procedure’, 21), (‘taxation’, 21), (‘statutes’, 18), (‘administrative law’, 18), (‘industrial law’, 14), (‘constitutional law’, 14), (‘corporations law’, 14), (‘family’, 9), (‘real property’, 8), (‘competition law’, 8), (’employment law’, 6), (‘native title’, 5), (‘damages’, 5), (‘private international law’, 2), (‘admiralty law’, 1), (‘recognition, effect and enforcement of foreign judgments’, 1), (‘supreme court’, 1), (‘banking and financial institutions’, 1), (‘planning’, 1), (‘legal practitioners’, 1), (‘discrimination’, 1), (‘jurisdiction’, 1), (‘extradition’, 1), (‘probate’, 1), (‘arbitration’, 1), (‘aviation’, 1), (‘representative proceedings’, 1), (‘courts and judges’, 1)]

Every category with less than 10 entries (or that averaged less than 1 grant per year) was then combined into the ‘other’ category resulting in 12 categories[5]

criminal law: 126 other: 57 contract law: 35 immigration law: 33 torts: 30 civil procedure: 21 taxation: 21 statutes: 18 administrative law: 18 corporations law: 14 industrial law: 14 constitutional law: 14

A copy of this data is in Appendix 1.

Exploratory Data Analysis

Visual Comparison

This data was further grouped into time-series blocks. Tests were done for 1, 3, 6 and 12 month intervals, within a calendar year. The next step was an exploratory analysis of the data.

The most compelling of these was the comparison of Criminal and Non-Criminal cases at the 12 month mark. Both appeared to have a relatively narrow ‘band’ and stayed close to the mean, and visually they have a very similar pattern that appears to be slightly lagged, with criminal cases following the results of non-criminal cases by about a year.

Although not strictly proof of a pattern – the low variance of the non-criminal matters (the fact that the number of grants was within a very narrow band) seems to be indicative of some form of rubber-banding pattern. This is largely inconclusive, but could be the focus of further research.

Visual Comparison with Dynamic Time Warping

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is an algorithm primarily used for measuring similarity between two temporal sequences, which may vary in speed or length. In the context of comparing distributions, DTW is particularly useful as it allows for the alignment of sequences with similar patterns, even if these sequences are stretched or compressed in the time axis.

Using Dynamic Time Warping we can look at the most prominent of the above relationships (crim and noncrim at 6 and 12 months) a little closer. The second graph in each plot is obtained by raising the criminal matters to the same mean as non-criminal.

There is a substantial drop in the distance between the distributions at the 12 month mark (when normalized). This means some of the randomness appears to ‘correct’ on an annual basis. It is the only outcome where the distance between the points shrinks.

Similarly, the DTW plot at 12 months is indicative of two very similar distributions, with the results aligning closely between criminal and non-criminal matters, with the closest point always being within 1 year. This is indicative of an at least somewhat similar distribution

Visually, the 6 month mark is also somewhat ‘closer’ than the other patterns, however there are large outliers that skew the data. There are any number of explanations for this (such as non-sitting months, pattern frequency etc), so despite it appearing not especially accurate, the DTW plot still contains (relatively) short distances, with the exception of large outlier values (that don’t exist in the annual plot).

It’s also relevant in the analysis of a 12 month plot, as the higher degree of difference in the 6 month plot (contrasted with the low degree in 12 months) suggests that something is indeed ‘happening’ to correct the outlier values at  6 months.

Granger Causality Testing

The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test used to determine whether one time series can forecast another. Developed by Clive Granger, the premise is not causality in the traditional philosophical sense, but rather a specific form of predictive relationship. The test checks if past values of one time series (X) provide statistically significant information about the future values of another series (Y). It assumes the series are stationary.

Given the relatively small sample sizes of the 6 and 12 month mark, this test is used with caution – as there is a substantial risk of overfit. 

Running this test provided no statistically significant results at the 6 month mark with lags of 1 and 2. At the 12 month mark – testing for Non-Criminal Outcomes causing Criminal Outcomes the following results were obtained.

Granger Causality number of lags (no zero) 1 ssr based F test:         F=4.7281  , p=0.0726  , df_denom=6, df_num=1 ssr based chi2 test:   chi2=7.0921  , p=0.0077  , df=1 likelihood ratio test: chi2=5.2299  , p=0.0222  , df=1 parameter F test:         F=4.7281  , p=0.0726  , df_denom=6, df_num=1   Granger Causality number of lags (no zero) 2 ssr based F test:         F=17.0062 , p=0.0231  , df_denom=3, df_num=2 ssr based chi2 test:   chi2=90.6999 , p=0.0000  , df=2 likelihood ratio test: chi2=20.1011 , p=0.0000  , df=2 parameter F test:         F=17.0062 , p=0.0231  , df_denom=3, df_num=2

The tests are indicative that lagged values provide a substantially better fit to use the past values of one distribution to fit the other, compared to the model without lagging. Even the values that are not of statistical significance (p=0.0726) are near the threshold for significance (0.05), and the remainder have crossed the threshold.

At this point we reduce our focus predominantly to the 12 month graphs (not that there aren’t interesting things to find at 6, but that 12 is proving more conclusive.

Decomposition

Decomposing the results for the criminal and non-criminal matters at 12 month intervals provides these graphs and results[6]. Mann-Kendall tests, Lijung Box Tests and a check on the seasonal amplitude were then performed. A copy of these outcomes is available in Appendix 2

Criminal

Mann-Kendall Significance Result
Statistic: -0.05128567983805128
P-value: 0.484040633430204
Interpretation: No Statistically significant trend

Amplitude (AMP)
Value: 1.5238095238095237Interpretation: Some seasonal fluctuation

Ljung-Box Test
Result: [Low array of P Values – under .001]
Interpretation: Model has not captured all the patterns in the data, significant autocorrelation in residuals

Non-Criminal

Mann-Kendall Significance Result
Statistic: -0.26117765800898934
P-value: 0.00035152530825361555
Interpretation: Statistically significant decreating Trend

Amplitude (AMP)
Value: 2.4367559523809526
Interpretation: Some seasonal fluctuation – more pronounced than crim matters

Ljung-Box Test
Result: [Low array of P Values – under .001]
Interpretation: Model has not captured all the patterns in the data, significant autocorrelation in residuals

Combined

Mann-Kendall Significance Result
Statistic: -0.21213180690861652
P-value: 0.003579423618320927
Interpretation: Statistically Significant decreasing trend

Amplitude (AMP)
Value: 2.1309523809523814Interpretation: Some seasonal fluctuation – logical this is between the two prior outcomes, means they are not fluctuating in opposite directions.

Ljung-Box Test
Result: [Low array of P Values – under .001]
Interpretation: Model has not captured all the patterns in the data, significant autocorrelation in residuals

Summary

The Lijung-Box Tests showed there was some substantial autocorrelation, and a realtively simplistic model (like the one above) fails to capture all the relationships. . Otherwise, whilst the number of criminal grants appears relatively static, there is a general decreasing trend in grant numbers on non-criminal matters. Otherwise, there is some seasonal fluctuation – that can at least partially be explained by non-sitting months.

Other tests

Time Series Comparison

At 7-8 Months there was a KS statistic around 0.2 and p values at approximately.04. There was also a KS statistic of KS Statistic: 0.22448979591836735 P-Value: 0.01409118978885701 at the 2 month mark comparing criminal and non-criminal grants. The P-Value was insignificant for all other outcomes.

The fact that the null hypothesis (the data comes from the same distribution) could not be rejected for our specific points of interest (6 and 12 months) helps our hypothesis that they are related but is insufficient to prove it – at best it’s slight evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

Polynomial Fitting

For all datasets, polynomials of up to 6th degree were fitted to the data. Arguably a third degree polynomial for 6 months of non-criminal data showed some promise, however it remains sufficiently inaccurate that this was discounted to noise. No other fits were reasonably close, nor showed improvement over a first degree polynomial (or straight regression line).

Analysis

Summary and Conclusion

It is fairly apparent there is a slightly lagged relationship between the criminal and non-criminal grants in the High Court. The visual comparisons are compelling, and far easier to interpret than the statistical modelling (done off the back of them).

The most obvious evidence the distributions are related comes in the 12 month interval plots. Both the criminal and non-criminal matter appear to follow a similar pattern, and the pattern between the distributions is substantially closer at the 12 month mark than any prior point.

The DTW plots show us that once normalized, the plots become much closer at the 12 month mark (if we use the normalized values, they go 12.17, 14.37, 18.6 and 7.8). This suggests that ‘something’ happens at 12 months that makes the relationship between criminal and non-criminal outcomes substantially more consistent than at any prior point

Otherwise, we have a tentative causality analysis with Granger Testing – albeit these results have to be treated with caution as there are only 10 outcomes in the annual samples, and there is a real risk of overfitting to noise. Regardless, this further supports the original hypothesis.

As such – it can be deduced that High Court Special Leave outcomes are dependent variables – and they are not entirely determined on a case by case basis. The full nature of the dependency goes beyond the scope of this article, however the dependency shows that high court outcomes are not independent of one another.

Significance

Being able to approximate the number of grants the high court will give during a specific period is a forensic advantage. From a practitioners point of view, the ability to have an increased grant rate by ‘timing’ a matter is of value.

More broadly, this suggests that the court is determined less on a case-by-case basis than previously thought. The stricter the patterns the courts follow – the less the details of any specific case matters, as opposed to the context they are presented in.

This opens the door to further research on court outcomes. It also provides some evidence to the pre-determination of matters, which would create noise in prior attempts to determine the importance of specific factors within a case.

Finally, as the high court is the highest court in the land, and comprised of the most senior practitioners, if they fall into predictable patterns that determine the outcomes they give, it can be speculated that less senior judges and practitioners are also likely to fall into patterns not necessarily related to the facts of the case. If that can be shown, there is the potential for further analysis into deconstructing the non-factual aspects of a case – specifically the parties involved and how their individual patterns are likely to influence the outcome.

Appendix 1 – Categorization Table

Judgement_DateCase_ReferenceCase_NumberOutcomeBulletin_Category
2013-05-10[2013] HCATrans 105105gstatutes
2013-05-10[2013] HCATrans 106106gcorporations law
2013-05-10[2013] HCATrans 111111gcriminal law
2013-05-10[2013] HCATrans 112112gcivil procedure
2013-05-10[2013] HCATrans 114114gindustrial law
2013-06-06[2013] HCATrans 135135gcriminal law
2013-06-06[2013] HCATrans 136136gcriminal law
2013-06-07[2013] HCATrans 137137gcivil procedure
2013-06-07[2013] HCATrans 139139gstatutes
2013-06-07[2013] HCATrans 140140gconstitutional law
2013-06-07[2013] HCATrans 143143gcriminal law
2013-08-16[2013] HCATrans 177177gother
2013-08-16[2013] HCATrans 180180gadministrative law
2013-08-16[2013] HCATrans 183183gcriminal law
2013-08-16[2013] HCATrans 184184g
2013-08-16[2013] HCATrans 188188gcriminal law
2013-08-16[2013] HCATrans 191191gcontract law
2013-09-06[2013] HCATrans 206206gstatutes
2013-09-11[2013] HCATrans 212212gother
2013-09-12[2013] HCATrans 220220gadministrative law
2013-09-12[2013] HCATrans 223223gother
2013-09-12[2013] HCATrans 224224gcontract law
2013-09-12[2013] HCATrans 225225gcriminal law
2013-10-11[2013] HCATrans 237237gother
2013-10-11[2013] HCATrans 239239gstatutes
2013-10-11[2013] HCATrans 244244gconstitutional law
2013-10-11[2013] HCATrans 250250gstatutes
2013-11-04[2013] HCATrans 262262g
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 267267gcorporations law
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 269269gcontract law
2013-02-15[2013] HCATrans 02727gcriminal law
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 270270gadministrative law
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 278278gcriminal law
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 279279gcriminal law
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 281281gcorporations law
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 283283gstatutes
2013-11-08[2013] HCATrans 285285gcriminal law
2013-02-15[2013] HCATrans 03030gcriminal law
2013-12-13[2013] HCATrans 312312gcontract law
2013-12-13[2013] HCATrans 314314gcriminal law
2013-12-13[2013] HCATrans 325325gcontract law
2013-03-15[2013] HCATrans 04949Gcontract law
2013-03-15[2013] HCATrans 05151gcriminal law
2013-03-15[2013] HCATrans 05353gother
2013-04-12[2013] HCATrans 07979gindustrial law
2014-05-16[2014] HCATrans 101101gadministrative law
2014-05-16[2014] HCATrans 102102gcriminal law
2014-05-16[2014] HCATrans 105105gindustrial law
2014-05-16[2014] HCATrans 109109gother
2014-05-16[2014] HCATrans 111111gimmigration law
2014-05-16[2014] HCATrans 113113gcriminal law
2014-06-20[2014] HCATrans 137137gtorts
2014-06-20[2014] HCATrans 138138gother
2014-08-15[2014] HCATrans 167167gcorporations law
2014-08-15[2014] HCATrans 170170gadministrative law
2014-08-15[2014] HCATrans 175175gcontract law
2014-08-15[2014] HCATrans 185185gtaxation
2014-09-04[2014] HCATrans 190190gother
2014-09-12[2014] HCATrans 202202gcriminal law
2014-09-12[2014] HCATrans 206206gcriminal law
2014-09-12[2014] HCATrans 207207gcontract law
2014-10-17[2014] HCATrans 239239gimmigration law
2014-11-14[2014] HCATrans 251251gcorporations law
2014-11-14[2014] HCATrans 252252gcriminal law
2014-11-14[2014] HCATrans 253253gtorts
2014-02-14[2014] HCATrans 02626gcorporations law
2014-12-12[2014] HCATrans 284284gcontract law
2014-12-12[2014] HCATrans 288288gtaxation
2014-03-14[2014] HCATrans 05151gcontract law
2014-03-14[2014] HCATrans 05252gtorts
2014-03-14[2014] HCATrans 05353gcontract law
2013-03-14[2014] HCATrans 05454gimmigration law
2014-03-14[2014] HCATrans 05757gevidence
2014-04-11[2014] HCATrans 07676gtaxation
2014-04-11[2014] HCATrans 07979gcontract law
2014-04-11[2014] HCATrans 08181gevidence
2015-05-15[2015] HCATrans 108108gcontract law
2015-05-15[2015] HCATrans 110110gtorts
2015-05-15[2015] HCATrans 113113gcriminal law
2015-05-15[2015] HCATrans 117117gstatutes
2015-02-13[2015] HCATrans 01212gcontract law
2015-05-15[2015] HCATrans 121121gcriminal law
2015-06-18[2015] HCATrans 149149gcivil procedure
2015-02-13[2015] HCATrans 01515gother
2015-06-19[2015] HCATrans 154154gtorts
2015-08-06[2015] HCATrans 171171gcivil procedure
2015-08-07[2015] HCATrans 176176gtorts
2015-08-14[2015] HCATrans 190190gtorts
2015-08-14[2015] HCATrans 193193gother
2015-09-11[2015] HCATrans 226226gtorts
2015-09-11[2015] HCATrans 228228gother
2015-09-11[2015] HCATrans 229229gother
2015-02-13[2015] HCATrans 02323gcivil procedure
2015-09-11[2015] HCATrans 232232gcivil procedure
2015-02-13[2015] HCATrans 02525gadministrative law
2015-02-13[2015] HCATrans 02626gimmigration law
2015-10-16[2015] HCATrans 262262gcontract law
2015-10-16[2015] HCATrans 266266gcriminal law
2015-10-16[2015] HCATrans 267267gcriminal law
2015-10-16[2015] HCATrans 270270gother
2015-10-16[2015] HCATrans 274274gtorts
2015-10-26[2015] HCATrans 279279gother
2015-11-13[2015] HCATrans 293293gcriminal law
2015-11-13[2015] HCATrans 295295gadministrative law
2015-11-13[2015] HCATrans 296296gcriminal law
2015-11-13[2015] HCATrans 298298gcriminal law
2015-11-13[2015] HCATrans 301301gconstitutional law
2015-11-13[2015] HCATrans 302302gother
2015-12-11[2015] HCATrans 328328gcriminal law
2015-12-11[2015] HCATrans 330330gcriminal law
2015-12-11[2015] HCATrans 333333gother
2015-12-11[2015] HCATrans 335335gcontract law
2015-03-13[2015] HCATrans 05757gcivil procedure
2015-03-13[2015] HCATrans 05858gcontract law
2015-03-13[2015] HCATrans 06161gcriminal law
2015-03-13[2015] HCATrans 06262gother
2015-03-13[2015] HCATrans 06363gcriminal law
2015-04-17[2015] HCATrans 08282gtaxation
2015-04-17[2015] HCATrans 08484gcriminal law
2015-04-17[2015] HCATrans 09292gimmigration law
2015-04-17[2015] HCATrans 09696gtorts
2016-05-05[2016] HCATrans 100100gtaxation
2016-05-05[2016] HCATrans 101101gtaxation
2016-05-12[2016] HCATrans 110110gcriminal law
2016-05-16[2016] HCATrans 115115gtaxation
2016-05-16[2016] HCATrans 116116gother
2016-05-25[2016] HCATrans 121121g
2016-05-25[2016] HCATrans 122122gcivil procedure
2016-06-17[2016] HCATrans 141141gtorts
2016-06-17[2016] HCATrans 144144gother
2016-06-17[2016] HCATrans 146146gtaxation
2016-07-20[2016] HCATrans 159159gcivil procedure
2016-02-12[2016] HCATrans 01616g
2016-07-28[2016] HCATrans 168168gcivil procedure
2016-07-28[2016] HCATrans 169169gcriminal law
2016-07-28[2016] HCATrans 170170gtaxation
2016-07-28[2016] HCATrans 173173gadministrative law
2016-09-01[2016] HCATrans 190190gother
2016-09-01[2016] HCATrans 191191gcriminal law
2016-09-01[2016] HCATrans 192192gcriminal law
2016-09-02[2016] HCATrans 196196gadministrative law
2016-09-02[2016] HCATrans 197197gimmigration law
2016-09-02[2016] HCATrans 201201gcriminal law
2016-02-12[2016] HCATrans 02323gother
2016-10-07[2016] HCATrans 231231gcontract law
2016-10-07[2016] HCATrans 233233gconstitutional law
2016-10-14[2016] HCATrans 243243gother
2016-10-14[2016] HCATrans 245245gother
2016-10-14[2016] HCATrans 246246gcriminal law
2016-10-14[2016] HCATrans 247247gcriminal law
2016-10-14[2016] HCATrans 248248gcriminal law
2016-11-10[2016] HCATrans 263263gcivil procedure
2016-11-10[2016] HCATrans 264264gstatutes
2016-11-16[2016] HCATrans 275275gtaxation
2016-11-16[2016] HCATrans 276276gimmigration law
2016-11-16[2016] HCATrans 277277gcriminal law
2016-11-16[2016] HCATrans 279279gcriminal law
2016-11-16[2016] HCATrans 280280gcriminal law
2016-11-18[2016] HCATrans 283283gcriminal law
2016-11-18[2016] HCATrans 284284gcriminal law
2016-11-18[2016] HCATrans 286286gother
2016-12-16[2016] HCATrans 304304gcriminal law
2016-12-16[2016] HCATrans 311311gindustrial law
2016-12-16[2016] HCATrans 312312gcriminal law
2016-03-11[2016] HCATrans 05555gimmigration law
2016-03-11[2016] HCATrans 05656gcriminal law
2016-03-11[2016] HCATrans 05959gother
2016-03-11[2016] HCATrans 06060gother
2016-03-11[2016] HCATrans 06262gcriminal law
2016-04-13[2016] HCATrans 08484g
2016-04-15[2016] HCATrans 08989gtorts
2017-05-12[2017] HCATrans 105105gindustrial law
2017-05-12[2017] HCATrans 106106gindustrial law
2017-05-12[2017] HCATrans 108108gadministrative law
2017-05-12[2017] HCATrans 109109gtorts
2017-05-12[2017] HCATrans 112112gother
2017-05-12[2017] HCATrans 113113gcriminal law
2017-06-16[2017] HCATrans 127127gother
2017-06-16[2017] HCATrans 129129gtorts
2017-06-16[2017] HCATrans 130130gcivil procedure
2017-08-18[2017] HCATrans 161161gcriminal law
2017-08-18[2017] HCATrans 164164gcontract law
2017-09-14[2017] HCATrans 179179gimmigration law
2017-09-15[2017] HCATrans 183183gtorts
2017-09-15[2017] HCATrans 184184gcivil procedure
2017-02-10[2017] HCATrans 01919gcriminal law
2017-09-14[2017] HCATrans 191191gimmigration law
2017-02-10[2017] HCATrans 02020gcriminal law
2017-10-20[2017] HCATrans 206206gtaxation
2017-10-20[2017] HCATrans 207207gcriminal law
2017-10-20[2017] HCATrans 208208gstatutes
2017-02-10[2017] HCATrans 02121gcriminal law
2017-10-20[2017] HCATrans 210210gcontract law
2017-10-20[2017] HCATrans 212212gcriminal law
2017-10-20[2017] HCATrans 213213gother
2017-10-24[2017] HCATrans 215215gcriminal law
2017-02-10[2017] HCATrans 02222gtorts
2017-11-17[2017] HCATrans 236236gother
2017-11-17[2017] HCATrans 237237gcriminal law
2017-11-17[2017] HCATrans 238238gcriminal law
2017-12-13[2017] HCATrans 259259gimmigration law
2017-12-15[2017] HCATrans 262262gcriminal law
2017-12-15[2017] HCATrans 263263gother
2017-12-15[2017] HCATrans 264264gcriminal law
2017-12-15[2017] HCATrans 269269gcriminal law
2017-03-08[2017] HCATrans 04848gindustrial law
2017-03-10[2017] HCATrans 05454gother
2017-03-10[2017] HCATrans 05555gtaxation
2017-04-06[2017] HCATrans 06969gcriminal law
2017-04-06[2017] HCATrans 07070gcriminal law
2017-04-07[2017] HCATrans 07373gcriminal law
2017-04-07[2017] HCATrans 07777gcriminal law
2018-06-21[2018] HCATrans 124124gother
2018-08-15[2018] HCATrans 145145gcriminal law
2018-08-17[2018] HCATrans 151151gcriminal law
2018-08-17[2018] HCATrans 153153gother
2018-08-17[2018] HCATrans 154154gstatutes
2018-08-17[2018] HCATrans 155155gother
2018-09-14[2018] HCATrans 186186gcivil procedure
2018-10-23[2018] HCATrans 220220g
2018-11-16[2018] HCATrans 241241gcontract law
2018-11-16[2018] HCATrans 242242gcriminal law
2018-02-16[2018] HCATrans 02525gtaxation
2018-12-05[2018] HCATrans 254254gother
2018-02-16[2018] HCATrans 02626gcorporations law
2018-12-14[2018] HCATrans 261261gcontract law
2018-12-14[2018] HCATrans 263263gcorporations law
2018-12-14[2018] HCATrans 264264gother
2018-12-14[2018] HCATrans 265265gother
2018-02-16[2018] HCATrans 02828gother
2018-02-16[2018] HCATrans 03131gcriminal law
2018-02-16[2018] HCATrans 03434gimmigration law
2018-03-21[2018] HCATrans 05050gstatutes
2018-03-21[2018] HCATrans 05151gstatutes
2018-03-23[2018] HCATrans 05656gstatutes
2018-04-20[2018] HCATrans 06969gconstitutional law
2018-04-20[2018] HCATrans 07171gcriminal law
2018-04-20[2018] HCATrans 07373gevidence
2018-05-09[2018] HCATrans 07676g
2018-05-09[2018] HCATrans 07777g
2018-05-10[2018] HCATrans 07979gimmigration law
2018-05-10[2018] HCATrans 08080gimmigration law
2018-05-18[2018] HCATrans 08989gcriminal law
2018-05-18[2018] HCATrans 09090gother
2018-05-18[2018] HCATrans 09191gcorporations law
2018-05-18[2018] HCATrans 09292gtorts
2019-05-17[2019] HCATrans 100100gcriminal law
2019-05-17[2019] HCATrans 101101gimmigration law
2019-05-17[2019] HCATrans 103103gtaxation
2019-05-17[2019] HCATrans 104104gcorporations law
2019-05-17[2019] HCATrans 106106gevidence
2019-05-17[2019] HCATrans 107107gtaxation
2019-02-15[2019] HCATrans 01313gimmigration law
2019-06-21[2019] HCATrans 131131gevidence
2019-06-21[2019] HCATrans 132132gother
2019-06-21[2019] HCATrans 133133gcontract law
2019-08-16[2019] HCATrans 159159gcriminal law
2019-02-15[2019] HCATrans 01616gcriminal law
2019-08-16[2019] HCATrans 160160gadministrative law
2019-08-16[2019] HCATrans 163163gstatutes
2019-09-11[2019] HCATrans 180180gcriminal law
2019-09-11[2019] HCATrans 181181gcriminal law
2019-09-13[2019] HCATrans 188188gother
2019-09-13[2019] HCATrans 193193gcriminal law
2019-10-10[2019] HCATrans 196196gother
2019-10-16[2019] HCATrans 200200gtorts
2019-10-18[2019] HCATrans 204204gother
2019-10-18[2019] HCATrans 205205gcriminal law
2019-10-18[2019] HCATrans 206206gadministrative law
2019-10-18[2019] HCATrans 207207gimmigration law
2019-11-13[2019] HCATrans 217217gcriminal law
2019-11-15[2019] HCATrans 225225gcontract law
2019-11-15[2019] HCATrans 232232gadministrative law
2019-11-15[2019] HCATrans 233233gtorts
2019-12-11[2019] HCATrans 243243gcriminal law
2019-12-13[2019] HCATrans 246246gimmigration law
2019-12-13[2019] HCATrans 250250gother
2019-03-22[2019] HCATrans 05454gcriminal law
2019-03-22[2019] HCATrans 05858gcriminal law
2019-04-12[2019] HCATrans 07070gcriminal law
2019-04-12[2019] HCATrans 07575gcriminal law
2019-04-12[2019] HCATrans 07676gtorts
2019-05-15[2019] HCATrans 09393gtaxation
2019-05-15[2019] HCATrans 09494gconstitutional law
2019-05-15[2019] HCATrans 09595gconstitutional law
2020-08-14[2020] HCATrans 111111gcriminal law
2020-08-14[2020] HCATrans 113113gimmigration law
2020-09-09[2020] HCATrans 136136gimmigration law
2020-09-11[2020] HCATrans 142142gcontract law
2020-09-11[2020] HCATrans 143143gcivil procedure
2020-10-08[2020] HCATrans 156156gimmigration law
2020-10-13[2020] HCATrans 160160gadministrative law
2020-10-13[2020] HCATrans 163163gcriminal law
2020-10-16[2020] HCATrans 166166gimmigration law
2020-10-16[2020] HCATrans 169169gtorts
2020-11-11[2020] HCATrans 188188gevidence
2020-11-26[2020] HCATrans 200200gindustrial law
2020-12-08[2020] HCATrans 214214gtorts
2020-12-08[2020] HCATrans 216216gcriminal law
2020-12-11[2020] HCATrans 221221gcriminal law
2020-03-20[2020] HCATrans 03737gother
2020-03-20[2020] HCATrans 03838gcriminal law
2020-03-20[2020] HCATrans 03939gimmigration law
2020-03-20[2020] HCATrans 04343gevidence
2020-03-20[2020] HCATrans 04444gimmigration law
2020-04-15[2020] HCATrans 04747gcriminal law
2020-04-17[2020] HCATrans 05050gother
2020-04-17[2020] HCATrans 05151gimmigration law
2020-04-17[2020] HCATrans 05252gcivil procedure
2020-04-24[2020] HCATrans 05555gimmigration law
2020-04-24[2020] HCATrans 05757gcorporations law
2020-05-29[2020] HCATrans 06464gimmigration law
2020-05-29[2020] HCATrans 06666gadministrative law
2020-06-05[2020] HCATrans 07373gadministrative law
2020-06-05[2020] HCATrans 07575gcriminal law
2020-06-05[2020] HCATrans 07777gcriminal law
2020-06-12[2020] HCATrans 08181gimmigration law
2020-06-25[2020] HCATrans 08989gtaxation
2020-07-03[2020] HCATrans 09393gimmigration law
2021-05-21[2021] HCATrans 101101gtorts
2021-08-13[2021] HCATrans 126126gconstitutional law
2021-02-11[2021] HCATrans 01313gcontract law
2021-08-13[2021] HCATrans 132132gcriminal law
2021-09-10[2021] HCATrans 145145gcriminal law
2021-09-10[2021] HCATrans 148148gcriminal law
2021-02-11[2021] HCATrans 01515g
2021-09-27[2021] HCATrans 151151g
2021-10-15[2021] HCATrans 166166gother
2021-02-11[2021] HCATrans 01717gtaxation
2021-10-15[2021] HCATrans 170170gadministrative law
2021-02-11[2021] HCATrans 01818gcorporations law
2021-02-11[2021] HCATrans 01919gevidence
2021-11-12[2021] HCATrans 199199gtaxation
2021-12-03[2021] HCATrans 210210gcriminal law
2021-12-10[2021] HCATrans 216216gtorts
2021-02-12[2021] HCATrans 02323gcontract law
2021-02-12[2021] HCATrans 02626gcontract law
2021-02-12[2021] HCATrans 02727gindustrial law
2021-02-12[2021] HCATrans 02828gother
2021-02-12[2021] HCATrans 03030gindustrial law
2021-03-12[2021] HCATrans 04242gother
2021-03-12[2021] HCATrans 04343gtorts
2021-03-12[2021] HCATrans 04444gcriminal law
2021-03-12[2021] HCATrans 04646gimmigration law
2021-04-12[2021] HCATrans 06262gindustrial law
2021-04-12[2021] HCATrans 06363gother
2021-04-16[2021] HCATrans 07171gcriminal law
2021-04-16[2021] HCATrans 07272gtaxation
2021-04-16[2021] HCATrans 07474gtorts
2021-04-16[2021] HCATrans 07575gcriminal law
2021-05-20[2021] HCATrans 09090gindustrial law
2021-05-20[2021] HCATrans 09595gcriminal law
2022-06-17[2022] HCATrans 111111gcriminal law
2022-06-17[2022] HCATrans 112112gcriminal law
2022-06-17[2022] HCATrans 113113gconstitutional law
2022-06-17[2022] HCATrans 115115gcriminal law
2022-02-18[2022] HCATrans 01313gother
2022-08-12[2022] HCATrans 130130gother
2022-08-19[2022] HCATrans 136136gcontract law
2022-08-19[2022] HCATrans 139139gadministrative law
2022-02-18[2022] HCATrans 01414gcriminal law
2022-09-09[2022] HCATrans 149149gstatutes
2022-09-16[2022] HCATrans 156156gtorts
2022-09-16[2022] HCATrans 157157gcivil procedure
2022-09-16[2022] HCATrans 158158gcriminal law
2022-09-16[2022] HCATrans 159159gother
2022-09-16[2022] HCATrans 160160gimmigration law
2022-10-14[2022] HCATrans 171171gcriminal law
2022-02-21[2022] HCATrans 01818gcriminal law
2022-10-21[2022] HCATrans 184184gcriminal law
2022-10-21[2022] HCATrans 185185gevidence
2022-10-21[2022] HCATrans 187187gother
2022-11-10[2022] HCATrans 193193gcriminal law
2022-11-10[2022] HCATrans 194194gcivil procedure
2022-11-11[2022] HCATrans 196196gimmigration law
2022-02-21[2022] HCATrans 02020gconstitutional law
2022-11-11[2022] HCATrans 201201gcriminal law
2022-11-18[2022] HCATrans 205205gindustrial law
2022-11-18[2022] HCATrans 206206gcivil procedure
2022-12-15[2022] HCATrans 225225gconstitutional law
2022-12-16[2022] HCATrans 229229gstatutes
2022-03-10[2022] HCATrans 02525gcontract law
2022-03-17[2022] HCATrans 03535gcontract law
2022-03-17[2022] HCATrans 03737gtorts
2022-03-18[2022] HCATrans 03939gother
2022-03-18[2022] HCATrans 04141gimmigration law
2022-03-18[2022] HCATrans 04242gcorporations law
2022-04-08[2022] HCATrans 05858gcriminal law
2022-04-12[2022] HCATrans 06363gcontract law
2022-04-12[2022] HCATrans 06464gcontract law
2022-04-13[2022] HCATrans 06969gevidence
2022-04-13[2022] HCATrans 07070gstatutes
2022-05-12[2022] HCATrans 08888gcorporations law
2022-05-12[2022] HCATrans 08989gconstitutional law
2022-05-12[2022] HCATrans 09090g
2022-05-12[2022] HCATrans 09191gconstitutional law
2022-05-13[2022] HCATrans 09494gcontract law

Appendix 2 – Decomposition Results

Criminal

interval= 12 crim

—-

—-

MK SignificanceResult(statistic=-0.05128567983805128, pvalue=0.484040633430204)

AMP 1.5238095238095237

LB VAL [ 91.03448276  91.43732242  91.50194115  99.59663339 101.49129838

 101.90042339 104.1178746  104.60898523 104.63690645 104.99131326

 105.30212778 108.06461211 110.26072041 110.54824945 110.90247237

 110.9243955  111.01848372 113.38502892 113.38514182 115.0763999

 118.54860178 118.61855038 119.25790066 119.66763482 119.76192067

 122.94450814 123.19913506 123.94702614 123.95311921 124.51772125

 125.31362486 125.33351297 125.51349024 125.51588031 126.67919692

 126.80859507 136.00530023 136.05994314 138.55191199 141.21320897

 141.6729864 ]

LB PVAL [1.41190051e-21 1.39520402e-20 1.04215418e-19 1.19871288e-20

 2.56259265e-20 1.00672243e-19 1.51950420e-19 4.86465111e-19

 1.80922298e-18 5.43777907e-18 1.58271882e-17 1.44364592e-17

 1.66086420e-17 4.37953424e-17 1.08179778e-16 2.99213194e-16

 7.76034089e-16 7.34690692e-16 1.88851226e-15 2.31000136e-15

 1.31724215e-15 3.10644808e-15 5.65679910e-15 1.11193977e-14

 2.43900308e-14 1.51023181e-14 3.02408732e-14 4.89387795e-14

 1.04677568e-13 1.76960777e-13 2.70043817e-13 5.48706191e-13

 1.03277915e-12 2.04863192e-12 2.59975235e-12 4.79888387e-12

 3.06707212e-13 5.85781002e-13 4.50528206e-13 3.25169787e-13

 5.24813723e-13]

Non-Criminal

interval= 12 nocrim

—-

—-

MK SignificanceResult(statistic=-0.26117765800898934, pvalue=0.00035152530825361555)

AMP 2.4367559523809526

LB VAL [ 91.03448276  91.24022144  92.17384677  94.7069632   94.79396483

  99.03964525 100.16577541 100.21353489 100.21796375 100.22058018

 113.72757417 116.99187863 117.16631415 118.64132513 118.67243725

 121.30930498 122.60437936 129.5091228  129.6176405  129.66246566

 130.29050815 130.45759579 131.20495925 131.74701261 137.11345418

 137.38959338 137.40177236 147.93993954 148.14754793 148.14772118

 149.327213   149.33645522 149.94905267 150.23461676 150.77200642

 150.79711572 153.47294751 158.46815068 158.48552253 159.05125985

 159.23029588]

LB PVAL [1.41190051e-21 1.53970546e-20 7.47454411e-20 1.31544287e-19

 6.59800086e-19 3.97995403e-19 9.97021633e-19 3.86096992e-18

 1.42161787e-17 4.92291767e-17 3.29151320e-19 2.45504582e-19

 7.29778647e-19 1.16064063e-18 3.42351562e-18 3.07525441e-18

 4.91213082e-18 6.58152721e-19 1.72227906e-18 4.50975062e-18

 8.96400435e-18 2.12340491e-17 3.85169743e-17 7.48154993e-17

 1.91785556e-17 4.08135957e-17 9.50720969e-17 2.89181567e-18

 6.20892942e-18 1.42690454e-17 2.00151070e-17 4.44812601e-17

 7.65123255e-17 1.48016184e-16 2.55988738e-16 5.34337499e-16

 3.94417118e-16 1.18324328e-16 2.43544021e-16 4.01245498e-16

 7.58353203e-16]

—-

Combined

interval= 12 sum

—-

—-

MK SignificanceResult(statistic=-0.21213180690861652, pvalue=0.003579423618320927)

AMP 2.1309523809523814

LB VAL [ 91.03448276  91.16041946  91.19527361  93.16882089  94.82708607

  95.49894473 101.40482711 101.40486071 101.77516403 101.78226887

 109.53973022 110.46131262 110.54164906 111.29361064 111.31822328

 111.99995367 112.44003502 115.7070916  116.48836357 118.36349268

 119.68335269 121.15127141 121.36960296 122.62931808 125.27981437

 128.30577698 129.09302276 133.88317834 135.33797106 135.34314914

 139.32504041 139.50967085 139.91096356 140.06839099 140.07378195

 140.48926195 145.28348601 145.33336703 146.6969     146.86199806

 146.91720642]

LB PVAL [1.41190051e-21 1.60238338e-20 1.21285940e-19 2.79326599e-19

 6.49296421e-19 2.17650760e-18 5.53004758e-19 2.20337950e-18

 6.88019224e-18 2.39560133e-17 2.26372259e-18 4.84995032e-18

 1.46316121e-17 3.13867200e-17 8.99960843e-17 1.86717904e-16

 4.18618676e-16 2.69738090e-16 5.01179137e-16 5.72507660e-16

 8.16228044e-16 1.07718163e-15 2.35787323e-15 3.29234135e-15

 2.56843200e-15 1.71049455e-15 2.81612592e-15 9.10592397e-16

 1.13046377e-15 2.48048221e-15 1.10657958e-15 2.21846633e-15

 4.02628959e-15 7.92959832e-15 1.63267503e-14 2.83372972e-14

 9.21478933e-15 1.82002307e-14 2.16634677e-14 4.01162586e-14

 7.64693923e-14]

—-


[1] The formal criteria for case selection are contained in the Judiciary Act 1903 s35

[2] Stuhmcke A, Stewart P, Special leave to appeal to the High Court: Which applications are most likely to be granted leave?” [2020] PrecedentAULA 29; (2020) 158 Precedent 20

[3] They targeted a specific composition of the High Court bench.

[4] FLYING FIGHTERS PTY LTD ACN 067 895 005

First Respondent

YAK 3 INVESTMENTS PTY LTD ACN 010 623 560

Second Respondent

BUBBLING SPRINGS OLIVE GROVE PTY LTD ACN 010 281 866

Third Respondent

NEMESIS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD ACN 010 255 537

[5] 10 is an arbitrary point, and does clip off some ‘almost sufficient categories in Family, Real Property and Competition Law

[6] I left the summed values out of this research. An analysis of the combination of criminal and non-criminal matters, or the autocorrelation of just grants is likely to bear fruit in further research

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